Theory of change (ToC) emerged in evaluation practice in the 1990s, particularly through the Aspen Institute's Roundtable on Community Change. It articulates: long-term goals, intermediate outcomes that precede them, the causal pathway connecting them, and assumptions underpinning each link. In research-impact contexts ToC is used to design impact strategies, identify evidence needs along the pathway, and structure stakeholder engagement. Many funders (NIHR, ESRC, Wellcome) now request a ToC at grant application.
References
- Weiss CH 'Nothing as practical as good theory' 1995. Center for Theory of Change (theoryofchange.org). NIHR impact framework documentation.