CASRAI Dictionary

Tag: horizon europe budget

  • Horizon Europe Proposal Won’t Survive at €175bn

    The European Commission’s €175 billion Horizon Europe proposal for 2028–2034 (FP10) is unlikely to survive Council negotiations intact. Every prior Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) research settlement — including the current Horizon Europe programme, whose original €100 billion opening bid was cut to €95.5 billion — has been reduced during Council bargaining, and the Cyprus Council presidency has already tabled a lower figure. Research administrators building multi-year horizon europe proposal pipelines should plan around a materially smaller settlement, not the headline number.

    The Multiannual Financial Framework is the European Union’s seven-year budget ceiling, negotiated unanimously by the Council of the EU and agreed jointly with the European Parliament, within which programmes such as Horizon Europe and its successor, FP10, receive their funding envelope.

    What Does the €175 Billion FP10 Proposal Actually Contain?

    On 17 July 2025, the European Commission published its legislative proposal for FP10 — the tenth EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, running as “Horizon Europe” from 2028 to 2034. The headline figure is €175 billion, roughly double the €95.5 billion allocated to the outgoing 2021–2027 programme.

    That number sits inside a larger structure. According to the Commission’s own published breakdown, FP10’s €175 billion is nested within a €410 billion European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), alongside €234 billion for other schemes. The programme is organised into four pillars: Excellent Science (covering the European Research Council and Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions), Competitiveness and Society, Innovation (the European Innovation Council), and a strengthened European Research Area pillar.

    Crucially, €175 billion is a Commission opening bid, not an agreed budget. Interinstitutional negotiation between Parliament, Council and Commission — the trilogue process — has only just begun, and a final MFF agreement is not expected before the end of 2026, ahead of the programme’s planned January 2028 launch.

    What Does MFF Precedent Say About Opening Bids?

    Every MFF research and innovation envelope in living memory has been negotiated down from the Commission’s opening figure. The pattern is consistent enough to build a forecast on.

    Framework programme Commission opening bid Outcome Change
    Horizon Europe (2021–2027) €100 billion (2018 Commission proposal) €95.5 billion final agreed budget, including a €5.4 billion NextGenerationEU top-up -4.5% net; at one point during the July 2020 European Council summit the figure was pushed as low as €80.9 billion before partial restoration
    FP10 / Horizon Europe (2028–2034) €175 billion (July 2025 Commission proposal) Not yet agreed. The Cyprus Council presidency has tabled €167.9 billion (April 2026) -4% on the Council’s opening counter-offer, against a European Parliament push for at least €200 billion

    The direction of travel is identical across both cycles: the Commission proposes a large increase, the European Parliament pushes for more, and the Council — which represents net-contributor member states with competing fiscal priorities — trims the figure during trilogue. FP10 is already following that script four months into formal negotiation, with the Cyprus presidency’s €167.9 billion counter-proposal landing before the Parliament has even finalised its own position.

    Why Is the €175bn Figure Already Shrinking?

    Three structural pressures point the same direction. First, the Council negotiates the overall MFF ceiling as a zero-sum allocation across cohesion, agriculture, defence and competitiveness spending — Horizon Europe/FP10 competes directly against those other headings, not in isolation. Second, several large net-contributor states have historically resisted MFF increases regardless of programme performance; this held even after Horizon Europe’s own interim evaluation found that every euro of EU contribution generates up to €11 in GDP gains by 2045 and that the programme had funded over 15,000 projects worth more than €43 billion as of January 2025.

    Third, FP10’s link to the European Competitiveness Fund creates a new negotiating lever that did not exist in the FP9 round: Council delegations can trade the research envelope against the wider €410 billion ECF total rather than negotiating Horizon Europe’s budget as a standalone line. That structural change makes a cut easier to justify politically, because ministers can present a smaller Horizon Europe figure as reallocation within a still-large competitiveness package rather than as a straightforward science-budget reduction.

    What Does This Mean for Grant-Pipeline Forecasting?

    Institutional research offices, EARMA and ARMA-affiliated grant teams, and funder relations units that are building multi-year FP10 pipeline models on the €175 billion figure are working from a number that has already moved once, before formal Council conclusions have even been reached. Practical implications include:

    • Model a range, not a point estimate. Use €167.9 billion (current Council presidency position) as a working floor and €175 billion as a ceiling until trilogue concludes, rather than planning around the Commission’s original figure.
    • Expect pillar-level reallocation, not uniform cuts. Past MFF rounds have shown cuts land unevenly across pillars; Excellent Science and EIC allocations have historically been better protected than collaborative-project envelopes.
    • Anticipate a later call-schedule start. With final agreement not expected before end-2026 and launch set for January 2028, first-wave FP10 call texts are likely to be finalised later in 2027 than institutions may be assuming.
    • Track the European Parliament position separately from the Council’s. The Parliament’s push for €200 billion is a genuine counterweight in trilogue, so the final figure could land above the Council’s current €167.9 billion offer — plan for a range, not a single downside scenario.

    For institutions coordinating this work through research administration functions, the practical response is to build FP10 revenue forecasts as scenario bands tied to the trilogue calendar, and to revisit those bands each time a Council presidency publishes a new negotiating box.

    Answer-First Q&A

    What Is the Budget for Horizon Europe?

    The outgoing Horizon Europe programme (2021–2027) has a final agreed budget of €95.5 billion, including a €5.4 billion NextGenerationEU top-up. The Commission has proposed €175 billion for its successor, FP10 (2028–2034), but that figure is an opening bid still subject to Council and Parliament negotiation.

    What Is the Budget of the Horizon Europe Pillars?

    FP10 is structured across four pillars: Excellent Science, Competitiveness and Society, Innovation, and the European Research Area. The Commission has not yet published final per-pillar allocations for FP10; these will be set through the same trilogue process determining the overall €175 billion headline figure.

    How Much Does the UK Pay Into Horizon Europe?

    The UK associated to Horizon Europe from January 2024 under a bespoke deal negotiated after the Windsor Framework, paying a contribution linked to UK GDP with a correction mechanism if UK entities draw significantly less funding back than they contribute. Exact annual figures are published periodically by UKRI rather than fixed in the framework regulation itself.

    What Is Horizon Europe Funding?

    Horizon Europe funding supports research and innovation projects across the EU and associated countries, covering frontier science (European Research Council), collaborative research addressing societal challenges, and innovation support (European Innovation Council). FP10 will continue this structure while adding closer integration with the European Competitiveness Fund.

    Conclusion: Plan for Less Than €175bn

    The evidence points one way. FP9’s opening bid fell by 4.5% net — and by nearly a fifth at its lowest negotiating point — before final agreement. FP10’s Council presidency has already tabled a 4% cut just months into formal talks, with a full trilogue still ahead. Research administrators, institutional finance offices and funder-relations teams should treat €175 billion as a ceiling, build FP10 grant-pipeline models around the €167.9–175 billion range the Council and Parliament are currently contesting, and revisit those forecasts as each successive Council presidency publishes its negotiating box through to the expected end-2026 agreement.

  • Horizon Europe Pillars vs FP10: Four vs Three

    Horizon Europe currently runs on three pillars; the European Commission’s FP10 proposal — published 16 July 2025 as “Horizon Europe 2028-2034” — restructures the programme around four pillars, adding a dedicated European Research Area pillar and shifting roughly €80 billion in additional funding toward competitiveness-linked research. For research administrators, the practical task is mapping existing pillar-based compliance workflows onto this new architecture before the programme’s expected 2028 start.

    Horizon Europe is the European Union’s current €95.5 billion research and innovation framework programme (2021-2027), organised into three pillars plus a horizontal strengthening-the-ERA strand. Its proposed successor, provisionally branded Horizon Europe 2028-2034 and widely referred to by its sequence number as FP10 (the EU’s tenth framework programme since 1984), would roughly double that budget and reorganise it into four pillars.

    What is the current Horizon Europe pillar structure?

    Horizon Europe’s three pillars separate funding by research logic rather than by discipline. Pillar I, “Excellent Science,” funds bottom-up frontier research through the European Research Council (ERC) and researcher mobility through Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA). Pillar II, “Global Challenges and European Industrial Competitiveness,” is the largest pillar, funding collaborative research across six thematic clusters — health; culture, creativity and inclusive society; civil security; digital, industry and space; climate, energy and mobility; and food, bioeconomy and environment. Pillar III, “Innovative Europe,” supports market-creating innovation primarily via the European Innovation Council (EIC).

    A horizontal strand, “Widening Participation and Strengthening the European Research Area,” sits outside the three numbered pillars and funds capacity-building in lower-performing research systems — a structural detail that FP10’s proposal absorbs into a new, standalone pillar rather than leaving as a side strand.

    How does FP10’s proposed pillar structure differ?

    The Commission’s proposal keeps the “Horizon Europe” brand but restructures the programme into four pillars, according to the Commission’s own 16 July 2025 announcement and its accompanying Multiannual Financial Framework factsheet. Pillar I remains “Excellent Science” largely intact. Pillar II is renamed “Competitiveness and Society” and reoriented around four “competitive” research themes — clean transition and industrial decarbonisation; health, biotech, agriculture and bioeconomy; digital leadership; and resilience, security, defence and space — plus three “society” themes covering global societal challenges, the New European Bauhaus Facility, and EU Missions. Pillar III becomes “Innovation,” with an expanded EIC that adds dedicated support for defence and dual-use start-ups. The structural headline is Pillar IV: “European Research Area,” an entirely new pillar funding research and technology infrastructure and a “single, borderless market for research, innovation and technology across the EU.”

    Current Horizon Europe (2021-2027) Proposed FP10 / Horizon Europe 2028-2034 Proposed budget
    Pillar I: Excellent Science Pillar I: Excellent Science (largely unchanged) €44.079bn
    Pillar II: Global Challenges and European Industrial Competitiveness (6 clusters) Pillar II: Competitiveness and Society (4 “competitive” + 3 “society” themes) €75.876bn (+41.8%)
    Pillar III: Innovative Europe Pillar III: Innovation (EIC expanded, adds defence/dual-use focus) €38.785bn
    Horizontal strand: Widening Participation & Strengthening ERA Pillar IV: European Research Area (new standalone pillar) €16.262bn

    The Commission also proposes tying Horizon Europe more tightly to a new European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), enabling joint “moonshot” projects that move research through to real-world deployment. Named moonshot candidates include:

    • The Future Circular Collider
    • Clean aviation
    • Next-generation AI
    • Data sovereignty
    • Automated transport and mobility
    • Regenerative therapies
    • Fusion energy
    • Space economy
    • Zero water pollution and ocean observation

    What are the budget and legislative timeline changes?

    The Commission’s proposal totals €175 billion for Horizon Europe within a €410 billion European Competitiveness Fund envelope, of which €234 billion covers other funding schemes, per the European Commission’s official 16 July 2025 news release. That compares with Horizon Europe’s current €95.5 billion allocation for 2021-2027 — close to a doubling in nominal terms.

    Neither the FP10 proposal nor the wider EU long-term budget (MFF) is final. Both require the ordinary legislative procedure, meaning the European Parliament and the Council of the EU must jointly agree amendments before adoption. The House of Commons Library reports that a final agreement is expected late in 2027, synchronised with the broader MFF negotiations, ahead of a planned 2028 programme start.

    The Commission’s interim evaluation of the current programme — cited in its own press materials — states that every euro of EU contribution is estimated to generate up to €11 in GDP gains by 2045, and that Horizon Europe had funded over 15,000 projects worth more than €43 billion as of January 2025. That evaluation, alongside the Draghi and Letta competitiveness reports, forms the explicit policy rationale the Commission cites for the pillar restructuring.

    Horizon Europe pillars: answer-first Q&A

    What is Horizon Europe Pillar 1?

    Pillar 1, “Excellent Science,” is Horizon Europe’s frontier-research pillar, funding investigator-led work through the European Research Council and researcher mobility through Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions. Under the FP10 proposal it keeps its name and structure, with earmarked funding rising to €44.079 billion.

    What is Horizon Europe Pillar 2?

    Pillar 2 is currently “Global Challenges and European Industrial Competitiveness,” Horizon Europe’s largest and most application-oriented pillar, spanning six thematic clusters. FP10 proposes renaming it “Competitiveness and Society” and raising its budget to €75.876 billion, a 41.8% increase, with roughly €68 billion co-managed alongside the new European Competitiveness Fund.

    What is the Pillar 3 of Horizon Europe?

    Pillar 3, “Innovative Europe,” funds market-creating innovation chiefly through the European Innovation Council. FP10 renames it “Innovation” and proposes €38.785 billion, expanding EIC support to include defence and dual-use start-ups alongside its existing scale-up mandate.

    What should research administrators do now?

    The proposal is not yet law, so no institution needs to rebuild compliance workflows immediately. But three planning actions are worth starting now:

    1. Map current pillar-owned processes (ERC/MSCA eligibility checks, cluster call monitoring, EIC scouting) against the proposed four-pillar labels, since Pillars I and III largely preserve existing scope while Pillar II absorbs new “society” themes and Pillar IV is genuinely new.
    2. Track the legislative timeline rather than the July 2025 proposal text as final — amendments through the European Parliament and Council are expected through 2027, and pillar names, budgets and cluster groupings may still change.
    3. Watch association status for non-EU institutions. The UK’s Department for Science, Innovation and Technology said in September 2024 it was “interested in potentially associating to FP10,” and the UK’s 2025 Spending Review allocated funding to cover the programme’s first two years of association, per parliamentary reporting.

    Institutions that already organise grants administration around Horizon Europe’s pillar logic — rather than around individual instruments like the ERC or EIC — will find the FP10 mapping more mechanical: three of the four proposed pillars are renamed continuations of existing pillars, and the one genuinely new pillar, European Research Area, formalises work (widening, infrastructure) that many research administration offices already track as a distinct compliance category today.

  • Horizon Europe FP10 Explained: The €175bn Framework Proposal

    FP10 is the working name for the European Commission’s proposed tenth Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, presented on 16 July 2025 as the successor to Horizon Europe for 2028-2034. The Commission proposed a €175 billion budget, roughly double the current programme, nested inside a wider €451 billion European Competitiveness Fund, with legal texts still under negotiation.

    Horizon Europe FP10 is the name the European Commission has chosen to keep for the tenth Framework Programme, though “FP10” persists as shorthand in policy circles ahead of formal adoption. Understanding its structure now, while Parliament and Council are still negotiating the text, matters for anyone planning EU grant strategy or open-access compliance.

    What is FP10 and how does it differ from Horizon Europe?

    FP10 is the European Union’s tenth multiannual Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, and the direct successor to Horizon Europe (2021-2027). The Commission presented its legislative proposal on 16 July 2025 as part of the wider Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) package for 2028-2034, according to its own research and innovation news portal.

    Unlike previous transitions between Framework Programmes, FP10 retains the “Horizon Europe” brand rather than adopting a new name. The structural change is not cosmetic: for the first time, the Framework Programme sits formally alongside a newly proposed European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), with the two vehicles described by the Commission as “tightly connected.”

    Horizon Europe (current) vs FP10 proposal, at a glance
    Feature Horizon Europe (2021-2027) FP10 proposal (2028-2034)
    Programme name Horizon Europe Horizon Europe (retained)
    Proposed budget €93.5 billion €175 billion
    Structural position Standalone Framework Programme Standalone programme nested inside a €451bn European Competitiveness Fund
    Pillars Three pillars plus Widening Four pillars: excellent science; competitiveness and society; innovation; European Research Area
    Legal status (July 2026) In force Under negotiation by Parliament and Council

    How much money is proposed, and how does the Competitiveness Fund fit in?

    The Commission’s proposal doubles the Framework Programme budget to €175 billion, up from €93.5 billion under the current Horizon Europe programme, according to the European Research Area platform and Science|Business. That figure is not the whole story: FP10 sits inside a larger €451 billion European Competitiveness Fund.

    The Commission has confirmed the ECF itself will not finance research activities directly. Collaborative research for competitiveness — the part of Horizon Europe closest to industrial priorities — will instead be governed jointly by the Commission’s research and industrial-policy directorates, funding the same priority areas as the ECF. That joint governance model is new; today’s research directorate manages Horizon Europe alone.

    Budget negotiations are unsettled. The European Parliament’s budgets committee is reviewing a draft report from rapporteurs Siegfried Mureşan (EPP) and Carla Tavares (S&D) arguing the proposed €175 billion is worth only around €155 billion once adjusted for inflation, and calling for a real-terms uplift to €173 billion. Treat €175 billion as a ceiling under active negotiation, not a confirmed figure.

    What are FP10’s four pillars?

    The FP10 proposal restructures Horizon Europe around four pillars: excellent science, competitiveness and society, innovation, and the European Research Area, according to Science|Business analysis of the Commission text — a shift from today’s three-pillar-plus-Widening structure.

    • Excellent science — continues to house the European Research Council (ERC) and Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, both in line for budget increases under the proposal.
    • Competitiveness and society — collaborative research and innovation aligned with the Competitiveness Fund’s industrial priorities.
    • Innovation — houses the European Innovation Council (EIC), which Science|Business analysis identifies as the largest proportional winner if the proposal is adopted unchanged.
    • European Research Area — widening participation, research infrastructure, and system-strengthening measures for countries with less advanced research systems.

    One detail worth flagging early: the EIC is piloting a staged funding instrument called “advanced innovation challenges” in 2026, modelled on the US Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), ahead of a wider ARPA-style rollout planned from 2028 under FP10.

    What happens next: timeline and negotiating positions

    FP10 is a legislative proposal, not adopted law. On 5 November 2025, German MEP Christian Ehler (EPP) was confirmed as the European Parliament’s lead rapporteur for Horizon Europe, with René Repasi (S&D) as rapporteur for the separate “specific programme” implementing legislation. Ehler has publicly warned that top-down industrial policy “should not dictate” the research agenda.

    In the Council, talks are further advanced on instruments supporting fundamental research than on the links between Horizon Europe and the Competitiveness Fund, or on how much say member states retain over strategic priority-setting. Several Widening-eligible states want budget diplomats kept out of a role historically held by research ministries.

    The UK government has published its own negotiating position via GOV.UK, describing FP10 as the successor programme tasked with “harnessing excellence-based research and innovation,” reflecting the UK’s continued association to Horizon Europe. None of this is final: co-decision on the MFF and FP10 legal texts is expected to run through 2026 and into 2027, ahead of a planned January 2028 start.

    What does FP10 mean for open science mandate continuity?

    This is the question competitor coverage of FP10 has largely skipped, and it is the one research administration teams and OA officers should start tracking now. Horizon Europe’s current Model Grant Agreement mandates immediate open access to peer-reviewed publications and FAIR-aligned data management, with only narrow, justified opt-outs. Nothing in the July 2025 proposal text explicitly reconfirms that these obligations transfer unchanged into FP10’s legal instruments — the specific programme text where such provisions would sit is still being drafted.

    Two structural features make this worth watching. First, Research Commissioner Ekaterina Zaharieva confirmed the future Horizon Europe will be “dual-use by default” — meaning all parts of the programme could support projects with both civilian and defence applications. Dual-use classification is a recognised basis for restricting publication and data-sharing under EU export-control rules, so a default dual-use posture could expand the grounds on which grantees claim exemptions from open-access obligations that currently apply almost universally.

    Second, joint governance of the Competitiveness Fund-linked research strand by the Commission’s research and industrial-policy directorates introduces a second rule-setting authority into a space open-science mandates have, until now, sat under a single directorate. Neither the July 2025 announcement nor subsequent Council progress reports have clarified whether the current open-access mandate carries forward unchanged, is tightened, or becomes conditional on a project’s dual-use classification. Research administration teams should treat the FP10 specific programme text, once published in draft, as a priority document to check line by line rather than assume continuity.

    Frequently asked questions

    What is EU FP10?

    FP10 is the common shorthand for the European Union’s tenth Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, the successor to Horizon Europe covering 2028-2034. In July 2025, the European Commission confirmed the programme will keep the “Horizon Europe” name rather than adopt a new title, despite the FP10 label persisting in policy discussion.

    Is the UK eligible for Horizon Europe funding?

    Yes. The UK is associated to the current Horizon Europe programme and has published a formal negotiating position on FP10 via GOV.UK, describing the successor programme as central to “excellence-based research and innovation.” UK eligibility for FP10 specifically will depend on a future association agreement, not yet concluded.

    What is the Horizon Europe Programme 2028-2034?

    It is the proposed successor to the current Horizon Europe programme, presented by the European Commission on 16 July 2025 with a proposed €175 billion budget. It retains the Horizon Europe name, restructures around four pillars, and sits inside the new €451 billion European Competitiveness Fund.

    What research administrators should track now

    FP10 will not be finalised soon: Parliament and Council negotiations on the MFF and the specific programme are expected to run through 2026 and into 2027, ahead of a planned January 2028 start. But the direction of travel is clear enough to act on — a larger headline budget inside a competitiveness-oriented fund, joint directorate governance, a dual-use-by-default posture, and no confirmed statement yet on open-access mandate continuity.

    Institutions and funders should follow the specific programme text as it emerges from trilogue, checking its open-access, data-management, and dual-use provisions against the current Model Grant Agreement rather than assuming no change. Engaging now, while the text is open, beats reacting after adoption.

  • Horizon Europe Budget: Parliament’s €200bn Push Against FP10’s €175bn Plan

    The European Parliament is demanding a €200 billion Horizon Europe budget for FP10 (2028-2034), €25 billion above the European Commission’s €175 billion proposal, while the Council’s Cypriot presidency has floated a lower €167.9 billion opening figure. With trilogue negotiations running through 2026 alongside the wider EU Multiannual Financial Framework talks, research offices planning Horizon-scale pipelines face a genuine funding-envelope range, not a confirmed number.

    FP10 is the working name for the tenth EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, the successor to Horizon Europe, covering the 2028-2034 spending period. The final horizon europe budget figure will not be settled until the Parliament, Council and Commission conclude trilogue negotiations on the broader Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), a process expected to continue through 2026 and potentially into 2027.

    Where does the FP10 budget standoff stand right now?

    Three EU institutions currently hold three different numbers. The European Commission’s 16 July 2025 proposal set Horizon Europe’s FP10 budget at €175 billion for 2028-2034, nested inside a much larger €410 billion European Competitiveness Fund (ECF) envelope that also covers industrial, digital and defence-related spending. The European Parliament has rejected that figure as too low. The Council of the EU, representing member states who ultimately vote the budget through, has pushed in the opposite direction.

    Institution Proposed FP10 budget (2028-2034) Position, as of mid-2026
    European Commission €175 billion Original proposal, published 16 July 2025
    European Parliament €200 billion Formal negotiating position, led by rapporteur MEP Christian Ehler
    Council of the EU (Cypriot presidency) €167.9 billion Lower counter-figure floated during the presidency’s first-half-2026 term
    Outgoing Horizon Europe (2021-2027, for reference) €95.5 billion Confirmed, includes €5.4bn from NextGenerationEU

    The gap between the Council’s and Parliament’s positions is roughly €32 billion — comparable to the entire current budget of Horizon Europe’s Pillar 3 innovation programme. That spread is the single biggest source of uncertainty for any institution trying to model FP10-era grant income today.

    Why does the European Parliament want €200bn, not €175bn?

    MEPs argue that the Commission’s proposal, while a nominal near-doubling of the outgoing programme, does not keep pace with Europe’s stated ambitions on strategic autonomy, the green transition and competitiveness with the US and China. Parliament’s lead negotiator, MEP Christian Ehler, has described the €200 billion demand as “clear and firm.”

    A second, structural objection sits alongside the topline number. Parliament has raised concerns that folding a large share of Horizon Europe’s Pillar 2 collaborative-research funding into the new European Competitiveness Fund ties scientific excellence too closely to industrial-policy objectives, potentially crowding out curiosity-driven, frontier research in favour of pre-defined competitiveness priorities.

    How would the money split across Horizon Europe’s four pillars?

    Under the Commission’s July 2025 proposal — the baseline both Parliament and Council are negotiating against — the four Horizon Europe pillars would be reshaped as follows:

    • Pillar 1 (frontier research): rises from €25 billion to €44 billion, funding the European Research Council (ERC) and Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) — a near-76% increase.
    • Pillar 2 (collaborative research): rises from €53.5 billion to €75.8 billion, split into €68.2 billion for “competitiveness” (managed jointly with the ECF) and €7.6 billion for “society” themes such as migration, democracy and social cohesion.
    • Pillar 3 (innovation): nearly triples, from €13.6 billion to €38.7 billion, mainly funding the European Innovation Council (EIC) for start-up and equity funding.
    • Pillar 4 (research policy): rises from €3.4 billion to €16.2 billion, absorbing research-infrastructure funding moved from Pillar 1 and a boost to the Widening programme, from €3 billion to €5.3 billion.

    Two notable casualties sit outside the headline growth. The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) does not appear by name in the Commission’s proposal, and Horizon Europe’s five current Missions are funded only until 2030 under the plan as published.

    What does the standoff mean for research office planning?

    Research administrators cannot wait for a final MFF signature before adjusting institutional strategy. Grant pipelines that assume Horizon-scale funding continuity into 2028 need contingency planning now, because the range on the table — €167.9 billion to €200 billion — is wide enough to change call volumes, success rates and priority-area weighting regardless of which figure prevails.

    • Model a range, not a point estimate. Build FP10 income projections against both the Council floor and the Parliament ceiling, not just the Commission’s midpoint proposal.
    • Track the Pillar 2/ECF split closely. Because collaborative-research funding is being partly absorbed into the European Competitiveness Fund, eligibility and priority-area alignment for consortium-based grants may shift more than the topline number suggests.
    • Watch the Missions and EIT decisions. Institutions with active Mission-funded projects or EIT Knowledge and Innovation Community involvement should flag the 2030 funding cliff and the EIT’s absence from the current proposal as live risks.
    • Re-check association terms for non-EU partners. The UK, associated to Horizon Europe since January 2024 under its bespoke agreement, has no formal vote in the FP10 trilogue but will need to renegotiate its own contribution rate once a final MFF figure is agreed — a step that historically lags the EU-internal settlement by months.
    • Time major FP10 proposal investment to the 2026 MFF milestones rather than to the Commission’s original proposal date, since work-programme detail cannot be finalised until the budget envelope is fixed.

    For institutions building broader research-administration capacity around Horizon-scale funding cycles, this is also a useful moment to revisit internal grant-pipeline governance — see CASRAI’s research administration resources for related planning frameworks.

    Answer-first Q&A on the FP10 budget fight

    What will happen to Horizon Europe after 2027?

    Horizon Europe’s current 2021-2027 programme will be succeeded by FP10, running 2028-2034. The Commission has proposed a €175 billion FP10 budget, but the final figure depends on trilogue negotiations between the Commission, Parliament and Council, expected to conclude in 2026 as part of the broader Multiannual Financial Framework agreement.

    Has the Horizon Europe budget doubled?

    Nominally, yes: the Commission’s €175 billion FP10 proposal is roughly 84% higher than the outgoing programme’s confirmed €95.5 billion (2021-2027) budget. Whether that increase survives negotiation intact depends on the outcome of the Parliament-Council standoff, where positions currently range from €167.9 billion to €200 billion.

    What is the successor to Horizon Europe?

    FP10 is the working name for Horizon Europe’s successor programme, covering research and innovation funding for 2028-2034. It restructures the current four-pillar model and links a large share of collaborative-research funding to the new European Competitiveness Fund, a broader €410 billion instrument proposed alongside it.

    How much does the UK pay into Horizon Europe?

    The UK has been an associated country to Horizon Europe since January 2024 under a bespoke association agreement, paying a contribution calibrated to its participation level rather than full EU membership rates. Its FP10-era contribution will need fresh negotiation once the EU-internal horizon europe budget figure is finalised.

    Whichever figure the trilogue eventually lands on, the direction of travel is clear: FP10 will be larger than Horizon Europe, more tightly coupled to industrial-competitiveness priorities through the European Competitiveness Fund, and slower to finalise in operational detail than institutions may be assuming. Research offices that build planning ranges now, rather than waiting for a single confirmed number, will be better placed when the 2028 work programmes eventually open.