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v2026.1714 entries · CC-BY 4.0
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Garden of forking paths

The Gelman-Loken metaphor for the implicit, data-dependent multiplicity of analytical choices made in the course of an empirical study, even by analysts not engaged in explicit p-hacking.

ByCASRAI Editorial Board
· Last updated 21 May 2026

Examples

Worked examples

  • Is an instance

    A diagram in a methods paper showing 32 plausible analytic pipelines branching from one dataset.

  • Is an instance

    An author's reflection on how many choices were latently available before any analysis ran.

Counter-examples

Looks similar, but isn't

  • Not an instance

    A pre-registered single-path analysis.

  • Not an instance

    A formal multiple-comparison correction (addresses but does not name the garden).

Editorial commentary

The 'garden of forking paths' is the conceptual umbrella under which forking-paths analyses and the multiverse-analysis literature operate. The metaphor borrows from Borges. Its practical import is that conventional inferential statistics, which assume a fixed analytical pipeline, are mis-calibrated when applied to data-contingent analyses.

References

  • Gelman, Loken, 'The garden of forking paths' (Columbia University working paper, 2013/2014).

Also known as

Gelman-Loken garden of forking paths

Machine-readable encodings

Use in your systems

JATS XML <role> element
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Schema.org DefinedTerm (JSON-LD)
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