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Dictionary termTrack EStablev2026.2

Theory of change

An explicit, testable map of how and why a research project, programme or intervention is expected to lead to specified outcomes, identifying the causal pathway and necessary intermediate conditions.

ByCASRAI Editorial Board

· Last updated 21 May 2026

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Examples

Worked examples

Is an instance
A grant application includes a theory-of-change diagram with explicit assumptions tagged for testing.
Is an instance
A programme evaluation revisits the original theory of change to assess where pathways held or broke.

Counter-examples

Looks similar, but isn't

Not an instance
A theory of change written as a single sentence with no intermediate outcomes or assumptions.
Not an instance
Treating a ToC as a one-off submission deliverable never revisited.

Editorial commentary

Theory of change (ToC) emerged in evaluation practice in the 1990s, particularly through the Aspen Institute's Roundtable on Community Change. It articulates: long-term goals, intermediate outcomes that precede them, the causal pathway connecting them, and assumptions underpinning each link. In research-impact contexts ToC is used to design impact strategies, identify evidence needs along the pathway, and structure stakeholder engagement. Many funders (NIHR, ESRC, Wellcome) now request a ToC at grant application.

References

Weiss CH 'Nothing as practical as good theory' 1995. Center for Theory of Change (theoryofchange.org). NIHR impact framework documentation.

Also known as

ToC

Machine-readable encodings

Use in your systems

JATS XML <role> element

xml

<role vocab="credit"
      vocab-identifier="https://casrai.org/dictionary/"
      vocab-term="Theory of change"
      vocab-term-identifier="https://casrai.org/dictionary/term/theory-of-change" />

Schema.org DefinedTerm (JSON-LD)

json

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  "name": "Theory of change",
  "identifier": "https://casrai.org/dictionary/term/theory-of-change",
  "description": "An explicit, testable map of how and why a research project, programme or intervention is expected to lead to specified outcomes, identifying the causal pathway and necessary intermediate conditions.",
  "inDefinedTermSet": "https://casrai.org/dictionary/domain/engagement-impact-sdg#set",
  "url": "https://casrai.org/dictionary/term/theory-of-change",
  "sameAs": [
    "ToC"
  ],
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
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  },
  "dateModified": "2026-05-21T02:22:57",
  "inLanguage": "en"
}

Referenced across the research world

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