Examples
Worked examples
- Is an instance
A grant application includes a theory-of-change diagram with explicit assumptions tagged for testing.
- Is an instance
A programme evaluation revisits the original theory of change to assess where pathways held or broke.
Counter-examples
Looks similar, but isn't
- Not an instance
A theory of change written as a single sentence with no intermediate outcomes or assumptions.
- Not an instance
Treating a ToC as a one-off submission deliverable never revisited.
Editorial commentary
Theory of change (ToC) emerged in evaluation practice in the 1990s, particularly through the Aspen Institute's Roundtable on Community Change. It articulates: long-term goals, intermediate outcomes that precede them, the causal pathway connecting them, and assumptions underpinning each link. In research-impact contexts ToC is used to design impact strategies, identify evidence needs along the pathway, and structure stakeholder engagement. Many funders (NIHR, ESRC, Wellcome) now request a ToC at grant application.
References
- Weiss CH 'Nothing as practical as good theory' 1995. Center for Theory of Change (theoryofchange.org). NIHR impact framework documentation.
Also known as
ToC
Machine-readable encodings
Use in your systems
<role vocab="credit"
vocab-identifier="https://casrai.org/dictionary/"
vocab-term="Theory of change"
vocab-term-identifier="https://casrai.org/dictionary/term/theory-of-change" />{
"@context": "https://schema.org",
"@type": "DefinedTerm",
"name": "Theory of change",
"identifier": "https://casrai.org/dictionary/term/theory-of-change",
"description": "An explicit, testable map of how and why a research project, programme or intervention is expected to lead to specified outcomes, identifying the causal pathway and necessary intermediate conditions.",
"inDefinedTermSet": "https://casrai.org/dictionary/domain/engagement-impact-and-sdg-alignment/",
"url": "https://casrai.org/dictionary/term/theory-of-change",
"sameAs": [
"ToC"
],
"license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
}
