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v2026.11,986 entries · CC-BY 4.0
NIKOLAI elementN3 · Thresholds and checkpointsProposednikolai-v0.3

Threshold Change

Definition

A threshold change is a revision to the wording, level or consequence of a capability threshold in an AI safety framework, recorded with the old text, the new text, the framework version and the stated reason. It matters because results reported under different threshold versions may not be comparable.

Also called: Threshold revision, Threshold diff, Threshold recalibration

NIKOLAI's proposed operational definition

NIKOLAI proposal: a threshold-change record documents a revision to a capability threshold, alert threshold or threshold consequence in a safety framework, with the threshold identifier, the old text, the new text, the framework versions before and after, the effective date, the stated rationale, and who approved the change. It lets results reported under different framework versions be compared, or flagged as not comparable.

The operational definition is CASRAI's own proposal, not a definition any named organisation has agreed to. See what NIKOLAI is and is not, or browse the AI safety glossary.

Examples

Examples from published documents

  • Anthropic's RSP v3.3 "revises our threshold for novel chemical/biological weapons production to better track the threat model of concern" (Anthropic RSP v3.4, changelog)
  • Meta changed the consequence of its Critical threshold from "Stop" to "Develop with Mitigations" in version 2 (Meta Advanced AI Scaling Framework v2, Appendix II)
  • "Under the updated FSF, which is more appropriately calibrated to real world harm, the alert threshold for CBRN has not been reached for Gemini 3 Pro" (Gemini 3 Pro FSF report, p.4)

Counter-examples

Not to be confused with

  • A change to evaluation cadence or to required safeguards is a framework change, but not a threshold change unless the threshold's own wording, level or consequence changes.

Source of record

Where this definition comes from

Crosswalk

How named organisations use this concept

Every row below is a shadow mapping. A shadow row is CASRAI's own reading of a published document. No lab, evaluator or regulator named on a shadow row has declared, endorsed, or been consulted on it. That changes only when an organisation files its own Mapping Declaration.
OrganisationTheir term, as publishedMatch & verificationSource
AnthropicShadow mapping
Responsible Scaling Policy v3.4
“Changelog, v3.4: "It revises the Automated R&D capability threshold in light of further issues that have come up in discussion"; v3.3: "revises our threshold for novel chemical/biological weapons production to better track the threat model of concern"; v3.1 addresses "how we operationalize the Automated R&D capability threshold". Policy-change process: "we will publicly share the updated version prior to or on its effective date and will record the differences from the prior draft in the Change Log." (§4(8))”exactEQ
confidence: high
Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3.4
MetaShadow mapping
Meta Advanced AI Scaling Framework v2
“"Critical threshold changed from 'Stop' to 'Develop with Mitigations.' High threshold measure changed from 'Do not release' to 'Deploy with mitigations.' Moderate or lower threshold measure changed from 'Release' to 'Deploy.'" (Appendix II, p.44)”
Records the change to each threshold's consequence, not to the threshold wording.
exactEQ
confidence: high
Meta Advanced AI Scaling Framework v2
MagicShadow mapping
Magic AGI Readiness Policy
“"we may update this threshold upward over time. We may also modify the public and private benchmarks used. Such a change will require approval by our Board of Directors, with input from external security and AI safety advisers." (item 3)”
Names the approver of a threshold change. The page carries the banner "Note: This policy is outdated. We're working on an update."
exactEQ
confidence: high
Magic AGI Readiness Policy
OpenAIShadow mapping
Preparedness Framework v2
“"we are removing terms “low” and “medium” from the Framework, because those levels were not operationally involved in the execution of our Preparedness work." (summary of changes from v1)”closeCL
confidence: high
OpenAI Preparedness Framework v2
Google DeepMindShadow mapping
Frontier Safety Framework v3.1
“After a framework assessment Google may "Update our risk domains and T/CCLs, where necessary." (s.5.1). A response plan "may include updating the alert threshold to ensure the safety buffer remains appropriate." (glossary, Response Plans)”closeCL
confidence: high
Google DeepMind Frontier Safety Framework v3.1
G42Shadow mapping
G42 Frontier Safety Framework
“Threshold table action once a threshold is reached: "Update the policy to include more advanced thresholds" (s.2).”closeCL
confidence: medium
G42 Frontier Safety Framework
AI Seoul Summit (Frontier AI Safety Commitments)Shadow mapping
Frontier AI Safety Commitments
“Approaches "may evolve in the future. In such instances, organisations will provide transparency on this, including their reasons, through public updates." (preamble, P2)”
Covers changes to any part of a signatory's approach, not thresholds specifically.
broadBR
confidence: high
Frontier AI Safety Commitments (AI Seoul Summit 2024)
What do these codes mean?
exact
The source term is equivalent to this element
close
The source term is close but not equivalent to this element
broad
The source term is broader than this element
narrow
The source term is narrower than this element
none
No mapping claim — used for false-friend and declared-but-undefined rows
EQ
Equivalent
CL
Close
BR
Source is broader than the element
NR
Source is narrower than the element
FF
False friend — same or similar label, different meaning
DU
Declared but undefined by the source
UV
Unverified

Related, not mapped

Pointers that are not crosswalk claims

These sources mention this concept but do not define or map it clearly enough to count as a crosswalk row — noted here so the research is visible without overstating it as a mapping.

  • Frontier Model Forum

    "Static Historical Standards": "risk thresholds would be established at a specific point in time (e.g. 2023) and never adjusted, regardless of changes in the ecosystem" (s3.2). The report presents this as one of two baselining approaches, the alternative being marginal risk assessment.

    FMF Risk Taxonomy and Thresholds

Divergence

Where sources materially disagree

Sources record different things under a threshold change. Anthropic records threshold-wording changes per point release with a one-line rationale; Meta records changes to the consequence attached to each threshold ("Stop" to "Develop with Mitigations"); OpenAI removed whole levels; Google DeepMind allows alert thresholds to move inside a response plan without a framework version change; Magic requires Board of Directors approval to raise a threshold or change a benchmark, and Anthropic's RSP changes are proposed by the CEO and Responsible Scaling Officer and approved by the Board in consultation with the Long-Term Benefit Trust.

Gap

Anthropic's Risk Report gives the replaced AI R&D wording ("compress two years of 2018-2024 AI progress into a single year") next to the current test, but most changelogs give a summary without the old and new threshold text side by side. Google DeepMind's Gemini 3 Pro report notes that its CBRN alert-threshold result changed under the "more appropriately calibrated" FSF v3 without publishing the old and new thresholds.

Referenced across the research world

University of Cambridge logoColumbia University logoCrossref logoUniversity of Edinburgh logoHarvard University logoUniversity of Oxford logoPrinceton University logoStanford School of Medicine logoUniversity College London logoORCID logoUniversity of Cambridge logoColumbia University logoCrossref logoUniversity of Edinburgh logoHarvard University logoUniversity of Oxford logoPrinceton University logoStanford School of Medicine logoUniversity College London logoORCID logo
  • University of Cambridge logo
  • Columbia University logo
  • Crossref logo
  • University of Edinburgh logo
  • Harvard University logo
  • University of Oxford logo
  • Princeton University logo
  • Stanford School of Medicine logo
  • University College London logo
  • ORCID logo

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